Zonal forest types, climatic variables and effect of changes for Hungary
László Gálhidy, Bálint Czúcz, Franck Torre
Distribution of the zonal forest types is critically influenced by climatic conditions, and climate change probably will affect their future distribution in most regions including South-East Europe. Our aim was to study the relationship between climatic variables and zonal forest types in Hungary based on their current distribution. We used two national databases for Hungary (forest inventory data, 2001 and climatic data, 1961-1990). We used Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to select the most important climatic variables that explain the recent distribution of zonal forest types. Probably of presence was determined for the whole area of Hungary for beech (Fagus sylvatica) and oak (Quercus petraea) dominated zonal forest types. Future predictions were also taken for beech-dominated forests, using different regional climatic scenarios. In certain regions probability of presence will decrease, and the maintenance of present forest types might become difficult or impossible.
climate change, CART, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea
Címszavazva - GE